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MARCH 5, 2016 SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:51 P.M. ET: CRUZIN' – A very good night for Ted Cruz amid signs that Donald Trump's campaign may be sliding somewhat off its game. Cruz won Kansas and Maine by substantial margins. Trump won Kentucky and Louisiana, but by small margins. It was not a great night for Trump. Cruz has now won six states. At the same time, Marco Rubio was shut out, and generally did poorly. He's won only one one state thus far, Minnesota. His campaign has the appearance of fading. As we've noted, Rubio battles Trump and Cruz in his own home state of Florida a week from Tuesday. If Rubio loses Florida, I think it's curtains. Tonight's results gave a boost to the anti-Trump forces, but the math still favors Trump. AS MICHIGAN GOES... – The next big test is Michigan, on Tuesday. Trump has been leading in the polls, but a new poll finds that John Kasich has taken the front slot. From The Hill: John Kasich has inched ahead of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump in Michigan's primary race, a new ARG poll has found. Kasich leads Trump 33 percent to 31 percent in the state, a major jump for the Ohio governor, who was at 17 percent in late February, the last time ARG surveyed Michigan. Trump has dropped 4 points from 35 percent since then. In the latest poll, Ted Cruz comes in third, with 15 percent, and Marco Rubio follows, with 11 percent." If Trump is defeated in Michigan, the psychological impact can be substantial. He's been presenting himself as a giant-killing inevitable winner. THE CRUZ GAME – From Bloomberg: Ted Cruz is campaigning aggressively to deny Marco Rubio any chance of a home state win in Florida’s Republican primary, in the hopes of knocking his rival out of the race so the Texan is left as the party’s sole challenger to billionaire Donald Trump. Cruz’s associates said that the strategy could mean Cruz ends up playing the spoiler in a state where he’s polling in distant third place, ultimately set up a one-on-one showdown with Trump for the Republican nomination. The campaign is doing what it sees as necessary to turn the Republican contest into a two-man race, said a senior adviser to Cruz who requested anonymity to speak candidly. That hardball approach includes trying to erode support for opponents such as Rubio, a first-term senator from Florida. Others are watching Florida as well, but for different reasons. There have been some serious hints this week that, if Trump isn't stopped, a third party might be formed, or an independent candidate, like Mike Bloomberg, might run. Now is when the Republican race gets seriously interesting. March 5, 2016 Permalink
THIS IS VILE – AT 12:18 P.M. ET: It's no secret that many parents who home school their kids do so for religious reasons. Most people of good will try to accommodate religious belief – after all, the country was founded on religious freedom – but that idea has gone out of style on the political left. From The College Fix:
Ah, but there is:
COMMENT: I thought Democrats are so interested in children. Well, maybe certain children. Very unfair of McAuliffe, but consistent with the left's war on families that don't go along with the program. Where are the so-called "civil libertarians"? What about the concept of taxation without representation? Oh, such old white man's stuff. March 5, 2016 Permalink SUPREME COURT – AT 11:48 A.M. ET: It is clear that President Obama is actively vetting possible Supreme Court candidates, and will try to fill the opening left by the death of Antonin Scalia. The president, who showed his smallness by refusing to attend Scalia's funeral, wants to put the Republicans in the Senate in the position of either approving his nominee, or looking like obstructionists, preferably "racist" obstructionists. Thus far the position of the Senate leadership, which is Republican, is to refuse to consider any nominee until the next president is elected and sworn. From The Hill:
COMMENT: There are reports, unconfirmed, that the nomination will be made in the coming weeks. If Trump is the likely Republican nominee, he'll be pressured by the media to take a stand on whether the Senate should hold hearings now, or wait for a new president. He could, of course, deflect the pressure and say that he won't intervene in a Senate decision. March 5, 2016 Permalink TODAY'S VOTING – AT 11:26 A.M. ET: The race to the nomination continues today in Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Nebraska and Louisiana. These states will not be decisive for either party, but we'll see if they continue the current trends favoring Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. There will be more primaries on Tuesday, the 8th, however the main event in this bout will take place on the 15th, a week from Tuesday. On that day both Ohio and Florida vote. If Ohio Governor John Kasich cannot win his home state that day, he is effectively out of the Republican race. If Florida Senator Marco Rubio cannot win his home state that day, he is so badly damaged that he'll probably be out of the GOP race as well. Please note that his mentor, former Governor Jeb Bush, who recently dropped out of the presidential contest, has not endorsed Rubio, and I suspect he won't. If both Kasich and Rubio fall, the race will be between Trump and Ted Cruz. Both men are despised by the GOP establishment. The establishment would love to see an open convention, but not with a Trump or Cruz outcome. There are technical ways to nominate someone else at an open convention, but there'd be an understandable uproar from the camps of both men, who have competed for almost a year, and it's probable that Trump would then walk out and start an independent campaign. On the Democratic side, no one seriously believes that Bernie Sanders can get the presidential nomination...unless Hillary faces either an indictment based on the FBI investigation, or political damage so great from that probe probe that she cannot go forward. I sense from commentary across the internet a feeling of depression that I've not seen since 1964, when the unpopular Democratic President Lyndon Johnson faced the out-of-the-mainstream and, to many, "scary" Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona. In that case, as the phrase goes, most people held their nose and voted for Johnson. There is a widespread feeling this year that both parties have failed. The Republicans have, through their rules, allowed the frontrunner to be a man who is neither a Republican nor a conservative, a coarse individual who embarrasses many with his behavior. The Democrats have, on the other hand, become like the old Republican Party, handing the nomination to the next person in line, someone who arouses the enthusiasm of nine people. Lots of discontent and frustration in both parties. On the GOP side the discontent is slipping into real fury and mutual accusation. It's the kind of civil war that led Ronald Reagan to espouse the "11th Commandment" for the party – "Thou shall not speak ill of any other Republican." It is routinely violated. Damaged, split, parties often lose elections because some of their members refuse to vote on election day. That happened in 1968, when a number of Democrats stayed home, refused to vote for Vice President Hubert Humphrey, and allowed Richard Nixon, the nemesis of the Democratic Party, to win. I'd hate to see Hillary Clinton win, and I'd especially hate to see her win that way. March 5, 2016 Permalink
MARCH 4, 2016 SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: POLITICAL HERESY – Much media buzz over Donald Trump's cancellation of a long-planned speech tomorrow before CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Committee. A stop at CPAC is considered a religious requirement in Republican circles. "Very disappointed [Donald Trump] has decided at the last minute to drop out of CPAC--his choice sends a clear message to conservatives," CPAC said in a tweet. Many conservatives worry that Trump is not a real conservative, and, indeed, he's supported liberal positions and candidates in the past. His snub may be a sign that he feels he can do without movement conservatives in the general election campaign, assuming he's the nominee. Probably not a wise move. STUNNING ENDORSEMENT – From the Clarion-Ledger: Civil rights activist Charles Evers has endorsed Donald Trump for president, touting what Evers refers to as the current Republican front-runner's business acumen. "I believe in him first of all because he's a businessman. I think jobs are badly needed in Mississippi," he said. Evers is the brother of slain civil rights leader Medgar Evers, who was assassinated in front of his Jackson home in 1963. There are signs in polling and actual voting that minorities may not be anywhere near as hostile to Trump as many pundits assumed. His economic message appears to be resonating, at least for now. He has the potential to bring new voters into the party, if he can control his mouth. Big if. OUTRAGEOUS – From hannity.com: It is widely accepted that American public schools are controlled by liberals. It seems like every day, we see new examples of American schoolchildren being indoctrinated with left-wing ideas. This latest example was brought to our attention by a concerned parent. Kindergarten students from PS75, a public school in New York City, recently took part in a class project in which the children were made to create an American flag with the flags of other 22 other nations superimposed over the stripes. Below the flag read the words "We pledge allegiance to an International Flag."...Although the description claims that the flags are limited to "Spanish speaking countries," the Russian flag is amongst those that are included. I doubt if anything will be done about this. New York City is currently governed by people who think Joe Stalin was just misunderstood. OH SHUT UP – Ah, for many years Canada had a prime minister named Steve Harper, and he was solidly pro-American, even though he had to put up with the antics of Barack Obama. Now Canada has a "liberal" prime minister, the son of the insufferable Pierre Trudeau. He's better than his leftist father, but still feels the emotional need to lecture us. From AP: TORONTO (AP) -- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canadians would appreciate it if Americans paid more attention to what's going on around the globe. Trudeau said in a "60 Minutes" interview to be aired Sunday that "it might be nice if they paid a little more attention to the world." Trudeau, elected in October, made the remarks after being asked what Canadians don't like about the U.S. "Having a little more of an awareness of what's going on in the rest of the world, I think is, is what many Canadians would hope for Americans," he said in a transcript released to The Associated Press on Thursday. Sir, we not only are aware of the world, we defend a good part of it. You'll be visiting us soon, and I hope you don't hold up traffic. March 4, 2016 Permalink
ET TU, JIM? – AT 10:56 A.M. ET: Former Democratic senator and presidential candidate Jim Webb is distancing himself from his party. There have been stories that Webb may be planning a third-party run, which could take points away from Hillary, although he's formally ruled it out. We'll see. This is intriguing. From the Politico:
COMMENT: Doesn't sound like a man who's ruled out jumping back in. There's a chance here to be a kingmaker, if the election is close. There are many ways to stay relevant. March 4, 2016 Permalink THE PLAN? – AT 10:21 A.M. ET: There's high speculation that Mitt Romney's plan, along with others who are appalled by Donald Trump, is to "lock" the Republican National Convention, making it impossible for anyone to win the nomination on the first ballot. The plan would then be to have a fully open convention, with a candidate, not Trump, emerging as the winner. From the Washington Examiner:
COMMENT: Read the whole thing. It's a manual on how to shake up a convention, and the nominating process. One group that's praying for this are the TV executives. It's exciting television – intrigue, backstabbing, double dealing, smoke-filled hotel rooms – all the things you need for a sound foreign policy. March 4, 2016 Permalink YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS UP – AT 9:56 A.M. ET: Fringe-left Mayor Bill de Blasio of the People's Republic of New York has a unique explanation for the rise of stabbings in the city. From Fox5NY:
COMMENTS: This is nuts. What should we have now, knife control? I have no knowledge of the individual details of crimes, but I'd bet that the increase in stabbings is probably due to lax, liberal social policies, especially involving the mentally ill. The city has become a lesser place since de Blasio took over. Just this week a new, more liberal approach to quality-of-life crimes, like public urination, took effect. I'm sure the public will be thrilled. The mayor is very vulnerable in 2017, if he runs for re-election. He is not popular. But the Republicans must find someone with a pulse to run against him. March 4, 2016 Permalink
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