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MARCH 5,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:51 P.M. ET: 

CRUZIN' – A very good night for Ted Cruz amid signs that Donald Trump's campaign may be sliding somewhat off its game.  Cruz won Kansas and Maine by substantial margins.  Trump won Kentucky and Louisiana, but by small margins.  It was not a great night for Trump.  Cruz has now won six states.  At the same time, Marco Rubio was shut out, and generally did poorly.  He's won only one one state thus far, Minnesota.  His campaign has the appearance of fading.   As we've noted, Rubio battles Trump and Cruz in his own home state of Florida a week from Tuesday.  If Rubio loses Florida, I think it's curtains.  Tonight's results gave a boost to the anti-Trump forces, but the math still favors Trump. 

AS MICHIGAN GOES... – The next big test is Michigan, on Tuesday.  Trump has been leading in the polls, but a new poll finds that John Kasich has taken the front slot.  From The Hill:   John Kasich has inched ahead of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump in Michigan's primary race, a new ARG poll has found.  Kasich leads Trump 33 percent to 31 percent in the state, a major jump for the Ohio governor, who was at 17 percent in late February, the last time ARG surveyed Michigan.   Trump has dropped 4 points from 35 percent since then.  In the latest poll, Ted Cruz comes in third, with 15 percent, and Marco Rubio follows, with 11 percent."  If Trump is defeated in Michigan, the psychological impact can be substantial.  He's been presenting himself as a giant-killing  inevitable winner. 

THE CRUZ GAME – From Bloomberg:  Ted Cruz is campaigning aggressively to deny Marco Rubio any chance of a home state win in Florida’s Republican primary, in the hopes of knocking his rival out of the race so the Texan is left as the party’s sole challenger to billionaire Donald Trump.  Cruz’s associates said that the strategy could mean Cruz ends up playing the spoiler in a state where he’s polling in distant third place, ultimately set up a one-on-one showdown with Trump for the Republican nomination.  The campaign is doing what it sees as necessary to turn the Republican contest into a two-man race, said a senior adviser to Cruz who requested anonymity to speak candidly. That hardball approach includes trying to erode support for opponents such as Rubio, a first-term senator from Florida.  Others are watching Florida as well, but for different reasons.  There have been some serious hints this week that, if Trump isn't stopped, a third party might be formed, or an independent candidate, like Mike Bloomberg, might run.  Now is when the Republican race gets seriously interesting. 

March 5, 2016       Permalink

 

THIS IS VILE – AT 12:18 P.M. ET:  It's no secret that many parents who home school their kids do so for religious reasons.  Most people of good will try to accommodate religious belief – after all, the country was founded on religious freedom – but that idea has gone out of style on the political left.  From The College Fix: 

Democrats often harp about “choice” and “privilege,” but it always pertains to certain kinds of choice and privilege.

Take Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe. This week he vetoed a bill which would have allowed homeschooled children to “play sports and otherwise participate in extracurricular activities at their local public schools.”

“Participation in athletic and academic competitions is a privilege for students who satisfy eligibility requirements,” McAuliffe said.

But … homeschool families pay property (and other) taxes which directly fund public schools. If homeschooled students satisfy “eligibility requirements” (like sports physicals, etc.), what rationale could deny their participation?

Unsurprisingly, there doesn’t seem to be one.

Ah, but there is:

As NRO’s Matthew Hennessey notes, “homeschoolers place no financial burden on the local public-education system.”

“No one ever mentions this particular privilege with regard to homeschoolers — the curious privilege of paying for a service you don’t use,” he adds.

However, in Virginia’s case, McAuliffe was the beneficiary of a vast amount of support from the Virginia Education Association during the 2013 gubernatorial campaign.

VEA president Meg Gruber had called a proposed constitutional amendment providing “equal resources” for homeschooled children a “reckless agenda that would be a major blow to public schools.”

COMMENT:  I thought Democrats are so interested in children.  Well, maybe certain children.  Very unfair of McAuliffe, but consistent with the left's war on families that don't go along with the program. 

Where are the so-called "civil libertarians"?   What about the concept of taxation without representation? 

Oh, such old white man's stuff.

March 5, 2016       Permalink

 

SUPREME COURT – AT 11:48 A.M. ET:  It is clear that President Obama is actively vetting possible Supreme Court candidates, and will try to fill the opening left by the death of Antonin Scalia. 

The president, who showed his smallness by refusing to attend Scalia's funeral, wants to put the Republicans in the Senate in the position of either approving his nominee, or looking like obstructionists, preferably "racist" obstructionists.  Thus far the position of the Senate leadership, which is Republican, is to refuse to consider any nominee until the next president is elected and sworn.  From The Hill:

President Obama is vetting two federal appeals judges and a federal trial judge who have received support or have ties to Republicans to replace Justice Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court, according to the New York Times.

Citing a source knowledgeable about the process, the Times reports that Merrick B. Garland and Sri Srinivasan are undergoing background checks by the FBI.

And according to the National Law Journal, federal trial judge Ketanji Brown Jackson is also being considered for the nomination.

Jackson formerly served on the U.S. Sentencing Commission and is an extended relative of Speaker Paul Ryan through marriage, according to the Times. She was confirmed to her current position in a voice vote in 2013.

Srinivasan, long floated as a potential choice for nomiee, was confirmed unanimously by the Senate to the federal Court of Appeals in the D.C. circuit in 2013. And Garland was confirmed in 1997 in a 76-23 vote.

Srinivasan would be the first Indian-American and first Hindu to serve on the Supreme Court, and Jackson would be the first black woman.

The New York Times previously reported that President Obama is also considering Judge Jane Kelly for the position.

COMMENT:  There are reports, unconfirmed, that the nomination will be made in the coming weeks.  If Trump is the likely Republican nominee, he'll be pressured by the media to take a stand on whether the Senate should hold hearings now, or wait for a new president.  He could, of course, deflect the pressure and say that he won't intervene in a Senate decision. 

March 5, 2016       Permalink 

 

TODAY'S VOTING – AT 11:26 A.M. ET:  The race to the nomination continues today in Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Nebraska and Louisiana.  These states will not be decisive for either party, but we'll see if they continue the current trends favoring Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

There will be more primaries on Tuesday, the 8th, however the main event in this bout will take place on the 15th, a week from Tuesday.  On that day both Ohio and Florida vote.  If Ohio Governor John Kasich cannot win his home state that day, he is effectively out of the Republican race.  If Florida Senator Marco Rubio cannot win his home state that day, he is so badly damaged that he'll probably be out of the GOP race as well.   Please note that his mentor, former Governor Jeb Bush, who recently dropped out of the presidential contest, has not endorsed Rubio, and I suspect he won't. 

If both Kasich and Rubio fall, the race will be between Trump and Ted Cruz.  Both men are despised by the GOP establishment.  The establishment would love to see an open convention, but not with a Trump or Cruz outcome.  There are technical ways to nominate someone else at an open convention, but there'd be an understandable uproar from the camps of both men, who have competed for almost a year, and it's probable that Trump would then walk out and start an independent campaign.

On the Democratic side, no one seriously believes that Bernie Sanders can get the presidential nomination...unless Hillary faces either an indictment based on the FBI investigation, or political damage so great from that probe probe that she cannot go forward. 

I sense from commentary across the internet a feeling of depression that I've not seen since 1964, when the unpopular Democratic President Lyndon Johnson faced the out-of-the-mainstream and, to many, "scary" Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona.  In that case, as the phrase goes, most people held their nose and voted for Johnson. 

There is a widespread feeling this year that both parties have failed.  The Republicans have, through their rules, allowed the frontrunner to be a man who is neither a Republican nor a conservative, a coarse individual who embarrasses many with his behavior.  The Democrats have, on the other hand, become like the old Republican Party, handing the nomination to the next person in line, someone who arouses the enthusiasm of nine people.  Lots of discontent and frustration in both parties.  On the GOP side the discontent is slipping into real fury and mutual accusation.  It's the kind of civil war that led Ronald Reagan to espouse the "11th Commandment" for the party – "Thou shall not speak ill of any other Republican."  It is routinely violated. 

Damaged, split, parties often lose elections because some of their members refuse to vote on election day.  That happened in 1968, when a number of Democrats stayed home, refused to vote for Vice President Hubert Humphrey, and allowed Richard Nixon, the nemesis of the Democratic Party, to win.  I'd hate to see Hillary Clinton win, and I'd especially hate to see her win that way.

March 5,  2016     Permalink

 

 

 

MARCH 4,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET:  

POLITICAL HERESY – Much media buzz over Donald Trump's cancellation of a long-planned speech tomorrow before CPAC, the Conservative Political Action Committee.  A stop at CPAC is considered a religious requirement in Republican circles.  "Very disappointed [Donald Trump] has decided at the last minute to drop out of CPAC--his choice sends a clear message to conservatives," CPAC said in a tweet.  Many conservatives worry that Trump is not a real conservative, and, indeed, he's supported liberal positions and candidates in the past.  His snub may be a sign that he feels he can do without movement conservatives in the general election campaign, assuming he's the nominee.  Probably not a wise move.

STUNNING ENDORSEMENT – From the Clarion-Ledger:   Civil rights activist Charles Evers has endorsed Donald Trump for president, touting what Evers refers to as the current Republican front-runner's business acumen.  "I believe in him first of all because he's a businessman. I think jobs are badly needed in Mississippi," he said.  Evers is the brother of slain civil rights leader Medgar Evers, who was assassinated in front of his Jackson home in 1963.  There are signs in polling and actual voting that minorities may not be anywhere near as hostile to Trump as many pundits assumed.  His economic message appears to be resonating, at least for now.  He has the potential to bring new voters into the party, if he can control his mouth.  Big if.

OUTRAGEOUS – From hannity.com:   It is widely accepted that American public schools are controlled by liberals. It seems like every day, we see new examples of American schoolchildren being indoctrinated with left-wing ideas.  This latest example was brought to our attention by a concerned parent.  Kindergarten students from PS75, a public school in New York City, recently took part in a class project in which the children were made to create an American flag with the flags of other 22 other nations superimposed over the stripes. Below the flag read the words "We pledge allegiance to an International Flag."...Although the description claims that the flags are limited to "Spanish speaking countries," the Russian flag is amongst those that are included.  I doubt if anything will be done about this. New York City is currently governed by people who think Joe Stalin was just misunderstood.

OH SHUT UP – Ah, for many years Canada had a prime minister named Steve Harper, and he was solidly pro-American, even though he had to put up with the antics of Barack Obama.  Now Canada has a "liberal" prime minister, the son of the insufferable Pierre Trudeau.  He's better than his leftist father, but still feels the emotional need to lecture us.  From AP:   TORONTO (AP) -- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says Canadians would appreciate it if Americans paid more attention to what's going on around the globe.  Trudeau said in a "60 Minutes" interview to be aired Sunday that "it might be nice if they paid a little more attention to the world."  Trudeau, elected in October, made the remarks after being asked what Canadians don't like about the U.S.  "Having a little more of an awareness of what's going on in the rest of the world, I think is, is what many Canadians would hope for Americans," he said in a transcript released to The Associated Press on Thursday.  Sir, we not only are aware of the world, we defend a good part of it.  You'll be visiting us soon, and I hope you don't hold up traffic.

March 4, 2016       Permalink

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ET TU, JIM? – AT 10:56 A.M. ET:   Former Democratic senator and presidential candidate Jim Webb is distancing himself from his party.  There have been stories that Webb may be planning a third-party run, which could take points away from Hillary, although he's formally ruled it out.  We'll see.  This is intriguing.  From the Politico: 

Former Democratic presidential candidate Jim Webb won’t be voting for Hillary Clinton, but he hasn’t ruled out casting his ballot for Donald Trump.

Webb, who briefly flirted with an independent bid before deciding against it, said on Friday morning that the Democratic front-runner wasn't inspirational.

"I would not vote for Hillary Clinton,” Webb said on MSBNC's "Morning Joe."

When asked whether he'd vote for Trump, Webb said he wasn't closed to the idea. “I'm not sure yet. I don't know who I'm going to vote for,” he said.

He said Clinton would simply continue President Barack Obama’s policies, but that with Trump, things would change — but he's not convinced it would be for the better.

“If you're voting for Donald Trump, you may get something very good or very bad,” Webb said. “If you're voting for Hillary Clinton, you're going to be getting the same thing.”

COMMENT:  Doesn't sound like a man who's ruled out jumping back in.  There's a chance here to be a kingmaker, if the election is close.  There are many ways to stay relevant.

March 4, 2016       Permalink

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THE PLAN? – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:   There's high speculation that Mitt Romney's plan, along with others who are appalled by Donald Trump, is to "lock" the Republican National Convention, making it impossible for anyone to win the nomination on the first ballot.

The plan would then be to have a fully open convention, with a candidate, not Trump, emerging as the winner.  From the Washington Examiner: 

"If you were to devise a plan to stop a runaway nominee," Republican superlawyer Ben Ginsberg said on MSNBC Tuesday night, "you would have to do a lot of state-by-state organizing, win the delegates at the convention."

In the late hours of election night — a night in which Donald Trump won seven of 11 Super Tuesday contests — Ginsberg, who knows as much about such matters as anyone in the GOP, offered a clinic on how to stop the front-runner. The first step, he said, would be to slow Trump down at the ballot box in the March 15 winner-take-all elections in Florida, Ohio and elsewhere. "You've got to do a lot electorally in the next two weeks," Ginsberg said. "March 15 is kind of cutoff day."

If the non-Trump candidates, specifically Florida's Marco Rubio and Ohio's John Kasich, were able to win their home states, they might amass enough delegates to keep Trump short of the 1,237 delegates required to clinch the nomination.

But what happens if neither, or even just one, can beat Trump? "Then, if you care deeply about where the party goes," Ginsberg said, "you get into the rules a little bit."

Ginsberg explained that 73 percent of the delegates at the GOP convention "are chosen at state conventions or by state party executive committees with little or no input from the candidate who wins that state." Those delegates are bound, on the convention's first ballot, to vote for the presidential candidate chosen by their state's voters. But they're not bound to do so on subsequent ballots. And even on the first ballot, they're not bound to vote in the candidate's interest on rules issues, credentials challenges, or other questions that can loom large in the arcane proceedings of the convention.

"So if you were to devise a plan to stop a runaway nominee," Ginsberg said, "you would have to do a lot of state-by-state organizing, win the delegates at the convention."

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  It's a manual on how to shake up a convention, and the nominating process.  One group that's praying for this are the TV executives.  It's exciting television – intrigue, backstabbing, double dealing, smoke-filled hotel rooms – all the things you need for a sound foreign policy.

March 4, 2016       Permalink

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YOU CANNOT MAKE THIS UP – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  Fringe-left Mayor Bill de Blasio of the People's Republic of New York has a unique explanation for the rise of stabbings in the city.  From Fox5NY:

NEW YORK (FOX5NY) - New York mayor Bill de Blasio is trying to put a positive spin on a recent rash of stabbings and slashings across the city. He credits the NYPD taking guns off of the street.

"I'm not a criminologist but I can safely say that guns are being taken off the street in an unprecedented way. Some people, unfortunately, are turning to a different weapon," de Blasio says.

New Yorkers have been on edge because of a series of highly-reported attacks, including several seemingly random attacks on the subways. The city was averaging more than 10 stabbing attacks a day in the first six weeks of the year.

The mayor claims that since there are so many fewer guns on the street, officers can now focus on criminals using knives and razors.

He says catching people committing minor infractions, so-called "broken windows" policing, is the key to getting weapons off of the streets.

COMMENTS:  This is nuts.  What should we have now, knife control?  I have no knowledge of the individual details of crimes, but I'd bet that the increase in stabbings is probably due to lax, liberal social policies, especially involving the mentally ill.

The city has become a lesser place since de Blasio took over.  Just this week a new, more liberal approach to quality-of-life crimes, like public urination, took effect.  I'm sure the public will be thrilled.

The mayor is very vulnerable in 2017, if he runs for re-election.  He is not popular.  But the Republicans must find someone with a pulse to run against him. 

March 4, 2016       Permalink

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